27 Feb 2010: In our last article (below), we provided highlights of an initial review of data by Dr Row W. Spencer, of the University of Alabama in Huntsville. After being asked about the influence on cosmic rays, wh
ich we can't see, Roy spent a few hours looking over some of the CERES data he had in hand and found the results "intriguing."
In a more recent post, Roy states that he had found "evidence consistent with natural cloud variations being the dominant source of climate variability since 2000.
"The following graph shows the variations in the Earth’s global-average radiative energy balance as measured by the CERES instrument on NASA’s Terra satellite. These are variations in the imbalance between absorbed sunlight and emitted infrared radiation, the most fundamental quantity associated with global warming or global cooling. Also show (in red) are theoretically calculated changes in radiative forcing from increasing carbon dioxide as measured at Mauna Loa."
There is uncertainty in the absolute accuracy of the CERES measurements, just as there are questions about the degree of sensitivity of Earth's climate system, such as the Spencer, et al., 2007 GRL paper, and Lindzen & Choi’s 2009 paper. Spencer discusses this in his full post.
In the end, Roy says: "Any way you look at it, the evidence for internally-forced climate change is pretty clear. Based upon this satellite evidence alone, I do not see how the IPCC can continue to ignore internally-forced variations in the climate system. The evidence for its existence is there for all to see, and in my opinion, the IPCC’s lack of diagnostic skill in this matter verges on scientific malpractice."